In his 1989 book ‘The Age of Unreason’, Charles Handy used the idea of the boiled frog as an allegory for what happens if an organism, and thus organisations, fail to adapt to changing conditions. In the story, a frog dropped into a pan of boiling water, immediately senses the threat and jumps straight out. However, place a frog in a pan of cold water, and bring it slowly to the boil, the frog adapts, but fails to identify the existential threat and dies. (2)
In 2002, the then US Defense Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, talking about challenges in the Middle East, introduced into public consciousness, a philosophical perspective on knowledge. There are known knowns; the stuff we are pretty sure is true, exists, or will exist. There are known unknowns; the stuff we are aware of but don’t fully understand and can’t predict. And then the unknown unknowns; the stuff we don’t know we don’t know. Arguably the latter is infinite and the former unsurprisingly very small and finite. (3)
The conceptual overlap between these two perspectives is arguably part of the human condition. Like the apocryphal frog there is stuff we know with some degree of certainty (known knowns) which may threaten our collective wellbeing or existence and yet because the changes happen incrementally over time, we fail to recognise or respond to the compound risk.
“with continuing improvements in education, nutrition, accommodation and healthcare, global citizens will be living longer and healthier lives”
But what you may well ask, has all of this to do with age and age diversity in the workplace? Well, here’s the thing; notwithstanding any Armageddon level events, we have pretty good certainty that the world’s population will top out at circa 11 billion during this century. This is stuff we know that we know. As part of this population growth, we also know that the age profile will flatten significantly. This means significantly more people in the higher age groups as a proportion and as absolute numbers.
For example, by 2100 over 25% of the global population will be over 65 years of age. Today it’s 9%…..broadly, 0.7 billion, plays 2.8 billion
Critically, with continuing improvements in education, nutrition, accommodation and healthcare (putting aside the potential impact of climate change for the moment) global citizens will be living longer and healthier lives.
Predicting the long-term shape of work is arguably a fool’s errand, as there are so many factors at play, some of which we may not even yet be aware of. We’re back into Donald Rumsfeld’s territory here! But what we do know with some degree of certainty is that humanity has two huge jobs to do if it’s not going to end up in the same position as the boiled frog. We need to fix, as much as possible, all the damage we’ve done to the earth since the advent of the industrial revolution and then we need to create a way of life that protects and enhances this fragile planet we call home.
(Just as an aside; nature doesn’t care if we exist or not. If we cease to exist nature will just carry on. Now there’s a thought)
On a much more positive note though, there is a sweet spot here for policy makers, governments and the public and private sectors more widely. Proportionately and absolutely, on one hand, more people in the higher age groups, who are healthy and well educated (and capable of more education), are not ready to call it a day on doing productive work…and on the other hand, there is potential for massive public and private investment in fixing the past and creating a sustainable future for our planet. Is this the green workforce staring us in the face, ready to deliver real change on the front line?
Arguably, there’s also a moral component to this proposition. Baby boomers, and to a degree other subsequent generations, have been accused of continuing to exploit and damage the earth whilst personally benefiting from that exploitation. Is this an opportunity to redress the deficit on the balance sheet?
So why ‘None so blind as those who will not see’(1)? Sadly, the human condition seems to be well aligned to that of the apocryphal frog, but hopefully not quite. We seem to have an unerring ability to protect the status quo, until a drama or a crisis forces us to act. It has to become personal, it has to feel real. Our challenge then, is responding effectively to what we know with some certainty, even though at this point in time it may feel neither real nor personal.
We know that the global population will continue to increase and then flatten out; we know that the age distribution will also flatten out with the proportion and absolute number of higher age citizens increasing substantively; we have some degree of confidence that those higher age citizens will be fitter and healthier; we know we have to fix the world and secure a sustainable future; and we know that the world is waking up to the need to invest in that future, or there won’t be one, for us at least.
Policy makers, governments, businesses, entrepreneurs, let’s not be blind to the known changes coming and the opportunities that creates. Here’s to the green workforce!
Tony Williams
www.tonywilliamscoaching.co.uk
- This proverb has been traced back to 1546 (John Heywood, an English writer), and resembles the Biblical verse Jeremiah 5:21 (‘Hear now this, O foolish people, and without understanding; which have eyes, and see not; which have ears, and hear not’).
- Apparently physiologically this isn’t true, but it still makes the point well.
- Rumsfeld was vilified at the time for what he said, but time and reflection has changed this.
NB: cover pic from: https://www.vecteezy.com/free-vector/energy